How to capitalise on recession?

In a financial crisis, its valuable to revisit the financial definition of "risk". Many would perceive risk as something negative because we get exposed to danger e.g. when we drive a car too fast. In finance, risk is different and broader. An investment can turn into both a better or worse outcome than expected. The spirit of the financial definition of risk is captured by the Chinese symbol for "danger" and "opportunity".

The definition of risk as both danger and opportunity summaries a conversation I had with an bank employee about how to capitalize on recession. She said that there are two ways to go about the financial crisis. Either we see stagnation or creativity. Stagnation, because the market chooses to react negative on the changes in stocks, value, interest rates, loans etc. Creativity because some chooses to see opportunities in bankruptcy, unemployment etc.

I am very inspired by opportunities and believe in any crisis we have the possibility to find positive change. What opportunities and how to capitalise on recession, I am discovering these days. If you have any input, please comment my blog!

How to use etnography in trend analysis?

18th September I attended a lecture on the interesting subject "Trend ethnography". With my Bachelor degree in Cultural Encounters (sociology and anthropology), I found Katrina Graffmans method of working with trends highly inspiring.

Firstly, she confirmed a company pain, I want to work with: companies, which want to stay competitive, are in the need of consumer insight! How do companies interact and identify different consumer needs? How do companies develop problem solving products? For me this is an important part of today’s innovation - consumer driven innovation.

Secondly, she made me recognize how I can use my education in solving the pain. She uses ethnography to observe and understand the consumers. The method aims to not listen to what the consumers tell but what they do! E.g. a study on women’s television habits showed that though the women claimed to watch news and documentaries, they actually spend most of their time watching soaps. It’s said that 80% are unconscious of what we do. We rely on our habits and our image of ourselves.

Thirdly, she presented one of her studies based on a company’s interest in the consumer group, 15-20 years old. A consumer group she calls "The Digital Natives". That’s the 90´generation who grew up with the digital media. How are they? Who are they listening to? How do they behave with mobiles? etc. After observing and spending time with the young people, Katrina concluded following 5 trends, characterizing the digital natives:

1. Media is integrated
2. Everything should be entertained
3. Need of autenticity
4. Experts lost trust worthiness. Blogs & mummy are trusty!
5. Real time information is important
   

Just to give an example, its important for the company, which wants to target the digital natives, to understand that the media is nothing the young people talk about - its something they can´t live without, just like the fish can´t live without the water! They are born as producers (e.g. create their own blog, Facebook, videos etc), which they consider as natural rather than interesting. Moreover they prefer free and easy technology. Finding "real" knowledge is complicated and boring. Another discovery is that they don´t trust experts like the Professor, doctor and journalist. For them home and trust you find in blogging with friends and your mum!
Read more about digital natives vs digital immigrants in an article from Timesonline.

How to use trends to build business ideas

#1 Firstly, study and read about megatrends. The father of megatrends, John Naisbitt, wrote in 1990 about trends he would expect to be of importance in 2000. Megatrends such as private welfare state, the time for female leaders, biotech, religious re-change and the return of the individual. I attended a seminar with the Professor, Henrik Blomgren, who gave his view on the 3 most important megatrends: 1) Welfare and health, 2) Globalization, 3) ICT and biotechnology.

#2 Identify the needed knowledge about the chosen megatrend e.g. Welfare and health. E.g. we know about the ageing population, which will lead to more jobs in the health care industry. In Sweden we also know that nearly 50% of the health care is managed by the private sector. Foreign companies like Attendo have entered the Swedish market and offers senior care to the growing ageing population.

#3 Define your business option. In the example with “Welfare and Health” I would ask what to do with elder people? A question some entrepreneurs have thought about and created the first playground for elder people! The business idea is a playground for elder above 65 years old who want to train their balance, muscles and meet other pensions in Stockholm.

#4 Evaluate whether it’s the right time. Time is everything. You must ask yourself how quick it must happen since you are properly ahead of your time.

The Innovation Game has Changed...

Open Innovation
"Companies that don´t innovate die. This is the certainty your company faces in this complex world. But how should your company innovate? Rather than relying entirely on internal ideas to advance the business, open innovation leverages internal and external sources of ideas" (Chesbrough, 2006).

Above statement explains how open innovation is a must and a paradigm shift, modern businesses need to consider if they want to survive and be competitive. Open innovation is about using the resources/ideas not only inside the company but also outside e.g. from customers, people on the street, suppliers to advance their business.


Nike is a company which has practiced the trend of open innovation. At Nikeid you as customer can design your own shoes. In Nike studios you can be consulted by an employee how to design the best fitted shoe. Nike is an interesting case who is redefining the role of the customer and employee; the customer = designer, the employee = consultant.



To test the new innovation game, I designed my own Nike sneakers with my name on!

Yarn Graffiti

I had a walk at St. Eriksgatan in Stockholm, where I found several public items covered with colourfull half-knitted cloth. After some research I discovered the purpose and people behind the happenings.

In August 2005 a group of friends in the States "started to discuss their frustration over unfinished knitting projects: half-knitted sweaters and balls of yarn gathering dust [...] Then it dawned on them… a tag crew of knitters, bombing the inner city with vibrant, stitched works of art, wrapped around everything from beer bottles on easy nights to public monuments and utility poles on more ambitious outings" (Knitta).


Today you will find several of knitting groups all over the world with a similar purpose of making the town more beautiful and expanding horizons. Masquerade is doing the same thing in Stockholm. They’ve even created a convenient Masquerade tourist map. There you will find the illegal street art, Knitting Graffity, around Stockholm.

Definition of trendspotting & future thinking

"A trend is a description of a change taking place long term or short term".
A trend can be short term manifestations, e.g. a fashion, design, assumption. A trend can also be a long term megatrends, which typically has a minimum of 30-50 years relevance, e.g. globalization, individualization, digitalization. Trends can be invisible, e.g. change in the gender roles, or visible, e.g. gadgets.

"The future is a story of where we think/hope/believe we are heading".
The future is a construction of some better/worse/different to the present. It’s a change. Not a time we will ever live in. We live in presence. But the future is a description of time compared to the present time.

A trendspotter is a person who is making change possible. Forecasters, business leaders, politicians, stock analysists, futurists identify trends and talk about the future to transmit a story into value for others. In short the role of a trendspotter is to tell persuasive stories about the present and the future to influence others.

Above definitions are key learning’s of the lecture "Trendspotting and future thinking", 4th September 2008.

The Beginning

Where are we heading?

This blog aims to open my mind and share my future images. The blog is created to share reflections and knowledge generated at the course "Trendspotting and future thinking", Stockholm School of Entrepreneurship 2008.

Learn more about what TRENDSPOTTING is according the trendspotter and course director, Magnus Lindkvist: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNZjwpUqrNo